The Death of Consoles: End of an Era or Just The Same Old Story?

Not actually my car, but this did happen to me recently.
It was a lot cooler looking than I expected.  

Thanks to cars catching on fire (me), or breaking down (Mike), and life being generally insanely, we've gotten a little off schedule here recently, but now we're back on top of things. So welcome back, and we're glad to still be here safe and sound.

And now on to the article!

Being such snappy dressers, I can see why people would listen to predictions by
 Ben Cousins (Ngmoco), Richard Garriott (Ultima), and Cevat Yerli (Crytek) 

A lot of people have been speculating on the death of home consoles recently, however this really isn't a new trend. The death of the console has been predicted for years, and while some predictions have come true, such as Sega pulling out of the hardware market (in 1999 that seemed far fetched), most have not. One great example of this that I've been hearing since the nineties is "Nintendo is sure to pull out of the market next year"; as people have perceived the Nintendo 64 (N64), the Gamecube (GCN), and even the Wii as market failures. Fact is though Nintendo is not only doing fine, but has led the market in system sales for some time. Going by the numbers, they're not going anywhere soon.

Looking at the numbers, Blue is at almost 43%, Red following at almost 30%,
while Yellow falls into last place at only 28% of the total vote for primary colors.
A shame folks, a crying shame.  Source. 

So why do these rumors abound then? For the same reason that there were predictions of the failure of television, light bulbs, and personal computers: because the people saying these things are generally unaware of all the factors involved, are "technically illiterate", or have something to gain by saying so.

Smart or dumb, television really hasn't changed that much over the years. 

The truth is even as mobile devices, tablets, and SmartTV's begin to hold their own in the gaming scene, consoles are going to have a basic staying power. While it seems like handheld's are quickly catching up to home PC's and consoles, and they are, that doesn't mean that the console and PC market are standing still. In the past we've been able to watch as arcades (re)died off, thanks in part to consoles catching up to them in terms of power and performance, but to make the same comparison of mobile devices now to home consoles or PC as gaming machines is fairly ridiculous. I don't doubt that one day mobile devices will be more powerful than a set-top console, but right now the technology is probably too distant to say that "the next generation of consoles will be the last". While I'm sure that console makers and developers will have to change and evolve in order to stay competitive in the market, they will still be around for quite some time. 

Uncharted 3 for PS3 on the left, Uncharted for PS Vita on the right.
A noticeable difference. 

The thing is the reason major developers like EA, Activision, Blizzard, etc., are still around is because they know how to adapt to the market. One can point to mobile gaming successes, like Angry Birds, and Draw Something, huge hits which are bringing in big audiences and revenues, but when compared with the revenues that series like Halo, Mass Effect, Modern Warfare and Battlefield bring in, it's easy to see why the large developers are likely not going anywhere anytime soon. 

Don't get me wrong, I'm not knocking mobile gaming or pick-up-and-play titles in any way, in fact I love these types of games. What I am saying is that by predicting the console market is going to crash in the next five years because a very small handful of games are doing well is ridiculous. Premature predictions of death or failure are part of the continuous cycle of technology, and just because an expert says something isn't going to last doesn't mean it's true.

I'd like to see the iPhone 5 render Crysis 2 in real time.
If it can then maybe I'm wrong. Maybe. 

So, are consoles dead in the water? For now, no, and they probably won't be for some time to come. So when will that day come? I for one am not willing to say, especially considering my own failed predictions on the announcement of console successors. However I will say I don't think that consoles will always be a part of pop culture; they are a piece of technology that is bound to eventually be passed by. For now though let's just enjoy what we have and not get too caught up in predictions of things to come. Besides, if all the predictions are true we'll be gone before 2013 comes around anyway. 

Until next time, keep on gaming.